In its July projections, the IMF anticipated that global headline inflation will rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, before easing to 3.9% in 2027. This mainly reflects energy and food prices: as of August 31, 2026, Brent crude traded at USD$ 93 per barrel, roughly USD$ 25 above its level a year earlier, amid restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz stemming from geopolitical conflicts. As a result, the global disinflation process has stalled.
In parallel, the IMF projected global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, with risks described as more balanced than in its April report. Nonetheless, risks tied to an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and to potential corrections in financial markets persist.
For its part, in its latest monetary policy announcement, on July 29, the US Federal Reserve kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% – 3.75%, with three votes in favor of a hike, amid core inflation that has yet to ease. As a result, the global monetary easing cycle has come to a halt and external financing conditions are tightening.
Mexico’s GDP grew 1.9% year-over-year and 1.4% quarter-over-quarter in 2Q26, for a cumulative increase of 1.2% in the first half of 2026 versus the same period of 2025. Growth was driven mainly by four sectors: retail trade, real estate services, wholesale trade, and construction. The Global Indicator of Economic Activity declined 0.1% month-over-month in June, its second consecutive contraction, pointing to a more challenging second half of the year.
Annual inflation stood at 3.26% in the first half of August, up from 3.12% in July, with a core component of 3.93%. The uptick was concentrated in services (4.34%) and in back-to-school items, while the peso, trading below 17 units per US dollar (its strongest level since May 2024), is containing the cost of imported construction inputs.
On August 6, Banxico held its target rate at 6.50% by unanimous vote, after concluding in May the easing cycle that began in 2024. The decision reflects the persistence of services inflation and leaves the cost of mortgage lending and construction financing at stable, albeit high, levels.
The SHF Housing Price Index rose 7.3% year-over-year in 2Q26 and 7.9% in the first half, led by the economic-social segment, at 10%. The increase, more than double headline inflation, coincides with an average mortgage rate of 11.42% for the quarter, according to Banxico, and with formal employment growing just 1.4% year-over-year as of June, based on IMSS data, which is pressuring affordability in the entry-level segment.
INFONAVIT loans for the purchase of new homes in Quintana Roo rose 17.0% from January to April 2026, while commercial bank loans declined 9.5%. The divergence reflects factors such as INFONAVIT’s T100 origination model, which lowered the prequalification threshold from 1,080 to 100 points, and the Vivienda para el Bienestar (Housing for Wellbeing) program.
In Quintana Roo, housing appreciated 11.5% year-over-year in 2Q26, the second-largest increase in the country after Tamaulipas (11.8%) and 4.2 percentage points above the national average. The differential confirms the state as one of the markets with the strongest price formation in the country, amid sustained demand in the tourist destinations of the Mexican Caribbean.